Miami Dolphins 2009 Fantasy Football Preview

The Miami Dolphins came out of nowhere in 2009 to win the AFC East before losing to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the playoffs. The two main factors for the dramatic turnaround rest on the acquisition of quarterback Chad Pennington, who was released by the NY Jets after the team signed Brett Favre, and the rise of the Wildcat formation that turned out to take several teams. (ie New England) off guard. In terms of fantasy, though, the Dolphins don’t really have many players that fantasy owners are comfortable starting week after week. Let’s break down Miami in terms of fantasy potential going into 2009.

After building a foundation along the offensive and defensive lines in last year’s draft, the Dolphins added more skilled position players to the frame on day two of the 2009 NFL Draft. That was a good move because the Dolphins have very few playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Chad Pennington is back for another year, but Chad Henne looks to be the team’s future QB. Even Pennington in his heyday with the Jets was nothing more than a No. 2 QB or someone you can play with based on matchups.

So it goes without saying, don’t be surprised if Pennington goes undrafted in most 12-team leagues this summer. Obviously, Henne has no fantasy value at this point either. The only QB on Miami’s roster who might be worth taking a very late-round midfielder is former WV QB Pat White who the Dolphins drafted in the second round. I highly doubt White will play any quarterback this year and I’m assuming the Dolphins recruited him specifically for the Wildcat, who was so successful last year. This would be perfect for White and would be an improvement over Ronnie Brown in that capacity. White, would represent the only Dolphin QB I could consider in the later rounds of my draft this summer.

Miami’s running game was pretty decent in 2009 when Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 1,575 runs at 4.2 yards per carry. Therein lies the rub, albeit in fantasy terms. If you read my “Draft Running Backs Early: Buyer Beware” column, this is exactly what I’m talking about. While it’s advantageous to introduce the RB by committee in the NFL, it represents a fantasy owners’ worst nightmare. I personally drafted 420 Ricky last year and to be completely honest I thought he would rush for 1000+ yards because I didn’t think Brown’s health would hold up all season giving Williams the most carries. Needless to say, I was wrong mainly because Brown’s knee held up better than I thought. Don’t expect anything special from either of these guys in 2009, either. The committee will continue, and to make matters worse, at least half of Brown’s 10 rushing touchdowns came in the Wildcat formation and, with White’s inclusion in the mix, Brown’s role in the Wildcat is expected to diminish. Treat Brown like a No. 3 RB or Flex starter and Williams like a backup worth a late-round pick in most leagues.

Miami’s receiving corps is worse than their running game in terms of fantasy potential. At this point, the only consistent receiving threat on the Dolphins lies with TE Anthony Fasano. 2008 saw Fasano catch 34 balls for 454 yards but 7 TDs. That’s an outstanding TD total for an NFL TE and Fasano clearly became the go-to man for Pennington as the season progressed. I don’t think Fasano was a fluke and with Pennington returning for a second year, there’s no reason to think he can’t be good for 5-6 TDs this year. Think of Fasano as a low-end #1 TE, or at worst, a great #2 TE.

Although, improving Ted Ginn Jr. hasn’t come close to living up to his potential. Also, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are nothing more than emergency in-betweens and if you trust either of them to consistently produce for you, your season will likely end early. Miami recruited Patrick Turner from USC and Brian Hartline from Ohio State University to help solidify the receiving corps. After the great 2008 campaign and subsequent impressive Senior Bowl scouts, the Dolphins are very interested in Turner. At 6’5″, he gives the Dolphins a big target, something the team has been lacking. Look for both Turner and Hartline to make the team, but neither is guaranteed to be drafted this summer in leagues with 12 or less teams.In bigger leagues then maybe as a late round midfielder, but not much more than that.As for Ginn and Camarillo, treat them both as late round reserves until they start producing points from quality fantasy on a consistent basis.

Dan Carpenter converted on all 40 of his PAT attempts and went 21-25 in FG, making him a reliable fantasy option heading into 2009. Ginn makes the DST interesting, but he’s still not a unit in this one. time worth playing each week, especially considering they have 4 games against TO and Randy Moss. Bottom line, with the exception of Carpenter and Fasano, I wouldn’t rush to draft too many Dolphins to your fantasy roster for next season. Coming tomorrow: The New York Jets.