Always bet on the celebrity imposter

That Beau Bridges sure is a good football coach.

Oh wait, isn’t Beau Bridges on the fringes of the University of Nebraska? Oh really? Is it a guy named Bill Callahan, who led the Oakland Raiders to the Super Bowl but was unceremoniously fired just a year later? Hmm. Well, I bet Callahan is a great B-movie actor.

The Callahan Cornhuskers have a New Year’s date at the Cotton Bowl this year, which is a nice milestone in Nebraska’s return to football prominence. Not that the Cotton Bowl is considered “major” these days (unless, that is, you also consider Capital One and the Outback Bowls “major”). But the fact that the ‘Huskers are even playing on New Years is a testament to a pretty significant turnaround from Callahan’s 5-6 debut season, just two years ago. However, on Monday morning in Dallas, Nebraska you will meet a completely different kind of cat: the Auburn Tigers.

Auburn hails from the much-vaunted SEC and as such draws accolades that it hasn’t consistently earned in 2006. They have a fantastic front seven on defense, anchored by DE Quentin Groves and LB Will Herring, generating one of the pass rushes fiercest in the country. CB David Irons is a very good coverage guy who can hit as well, and while Auburn’s safeties have been beaten on occasion, the team generally generates so much oomph up front that opposing quarterbacks can’t do much upfield. This defense will likely be the best Nebraska has faced all year. But the Tigers’ offense is not very good. RB Kenny Irons is a legitimate pro prospect, but he’s been limited all season by toe, ankle and shoulder injuries; the long break between the end of the regular season and the New Year will surely help him out. But if Nebraska is smart, they’ll have Auburn quarterback Brent Cox beat them. While Cox had a completion percentage of over 60% this season, he only threw 13 touchdowns on nine interceptions, made too many bad decisions, and had too many SEC contests (LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama, at least) where he was. more hindrance than help.

I’ll face facts: Auburn should win this game easily. They have a better pedigree, faster defense, bigger lines and have played a tougher schedule. They ousted then #6 LSU and #2 Florida. They smoke you in defense. But there’s something about the Tigers that I don’t trust. It goes back to last year’s bowl game against Wisconsin, when the Tigers were blown out by a big Badgers underdog, 24-10. It continued through the home blowout, while they were undefeated, at the hands of Arkansas, as well as games they probably should have lost at South Carolina and Mississippi. And it certainly includes the inexplicable 37-15 home loss to Georgia. At some point, you have to stop listening to the hype and believe what your eyes tell you. My eyes tell me Auburn’s offense isn’t good enough.

Under coach Bridges, er, Callahan, Nebraska’s offense is very good and (I think) superior to Auburn’s. QB Zac Taylor will be the most important player in this game; he threw 25 TDs and just seven interceptions (three of them against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game) while doling out at least 12 receptions to nine different receivers. The Huskers’ passing offense yielded almost exactly the same number of yards per game as USC’s in 2006 (tied for 17th nationally), and their fast-paced offense, anchored by emerging junior RB Brandon Jackson (951 yards rushing, 5.3 yards per carry), ranked 25th nationally, with 175.6 yards per game. And Nebraska’s run defense is very good, too: Jay Moore, Barry Cryer, Ola Dagunduro and Adam Carriker are athletic and difficult to move at the point of attack, and contributed to a run defense that, statistically speaking, in actually it was a little better than Auburn. Where Nebraska can be exploited, and where Oklahoma torched them to the tune of 265 yards, is in their junior secondary.

However, I think the combination of a decent run and Brent Cox at QB for Auburn covers this weakness. Taylor won’t throw for 300 yards and five touchdowns against the Tigers’ defense, but he’ll play better than he did against Oklahoma. Nebraska’s 28-10 loss to USC earlier in the season is probably more instructive: Taylor didn’t turn the ball over and ran for Nebraska’s only score. In that game, Callahan only took the reins from Taylor to the tune of 16 total pass attempts; I think Bridges learned from his mistake and will let his best player go out and try to win the Cotton Bowl, instead of not losing it. I guarantee you, Nebraska was building its numbers against the spongy backdrop of the Big 12, while Auburn had to play against the deepest league in the nation. But while Auburn remained the pollsters’ favorite until the Georgia loss, they were 2-6 in their last eight games against the spread, 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 1-6 ATS in his last seven games as a favourite. By contrast, the rebuilding and underrated Huskers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss. . This is a tough defensive fight waiting to happen, and Auburn’s defense will probably be the best unit on the field. But Taylor will be the best player on the field, and as long as the game is in Cox’s hands (no disrespect to the youngster as a person intended), I like Nebraska’s chances.

These Auburn players are the same kids who have underperformed (especially offensively) in several big games dating back to their 2005 bowl game, and who probably should have lost at least two more games than they did. And while Nebraska really hasn’t had a big win since beating Michigan in last year’s Alamo Bowl, I think the wise still remember the weak Husker team of 2004, and don’t give enough credit to the work of celebrity impostor Callahan. he has done. As such, I’m willing to take Nebraska (+2) as an underdog to cover against Auburn.

Regular Season: Our last college football regular season pick, San Jose St. giving up four against Fresno St., was a relatively easy cover, as the Spartans won against the rival Bulldogs, 24-14. That helped us wrap up another successful college football season, going 9-5 overall against the spread. Here’s hoping we can keep it going through bowl season.